XRP Bulls Need a Return to $0.48 to Avoid a Fifth Successive Loss

Key Insights:

• On Friday, XRP bucked the broader market trend for a second session, falling by 0.93% to end the day at $0.47549.
• Investor sentiment toward the ongoing SEC v Ripple case continued to weigh.
• The technical indicators send bearish signals, bringing sub-$0.45 into view.

On Friday, XRP fell by 0.93%. Following a 0.01% decline on Thursday, XRP ended the day at $0.47549. The bearish session left XRP short of the $0.50 handle for the second consecutive session.

After a mixed start to the day, XRP rose to a mid-morning high of $0.48262. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4875, XRP fell to a late morning low of $0.4550. XRP fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4700 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4601 before a late recovery to end the day at $0.47549.

Investor Angst over the SEC v Ripple Case Weighed

It was a relatively quiet Friday session. There were no updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to distract investors. However, a shift in sentiment toward the SEC v Ripple case left XRP on the back foot through the morning session.

Hopes for an SEC settlement to prevent the release of the William Hinman speech-related documents vanished this week. Significantly, the speech-related documents failed to draw US lawmaker scrutiny or put SEC Chair Gary Gensler on the defensive.

While sentiment toward the SEC v Ripple case dragged, US economic indicators provided afternoon support but not enough to prevent a session loss.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Saturday session, with no US economic indicators or Court rulings for investors to consider. The lack of SEC v Ripple Court activity will leave investors to consider the disappointing impact of the Hinman speech-related documents on the SEC v Ripple case.

Increased SEC activity and the filings against Binance and Coinbase (COIN) have turned hopes of a Ripple win into concern. A settlement would remove the chance of an SEC appeal in case of a Ripple win. A Ripple win and an SEC appeal would leave the US crypto market in regulatory uncertainty for even longer.

Beyond the SEC v Ripple case, investors should also monitor SEC v Binance and SEC-Coinbase-related chatter.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.21% to $0.47447. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.47575 before falling to a low of $0.46982.

Technical Indicators

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bearish signals.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.49198. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. The EMAs delivered bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.4871) and the 200-day EMA ($0.49198) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.49676) and R2 ($0.4987). However, failure to move through the 200-day ($0.49198) would leave S1 ($0.4595) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.

Resistance & Support Levels

XRP needs to avoid the $0.4710 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4871. A move through the Friday high of $0.48262 would signal an extended breakout session. However, SEC v Ripple chatter and the crypto news wires must support a breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4987 and resistance at $0.50. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5263.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4595 into play. However, barring another risk-off-fueled sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.45 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4434. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4158.