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Key Insights:
- On Sunday, BTC joined the broader market in the red, falling 0.27% to end the day at $30,381.
- Unaffected by the debate of ‘security or not a security’, BTC ended the week flat despite striking a week high of 31,291.
- The near-term technical indicators remained bearish, signaling a return to sub-$30,000.
On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.27%. Reversing a 0.18% gain from Saturday, BTC ended the week up 0.31% to $30,381. Notably, BTC ended the day at sub-$30,500 for the third consecutive session.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
This morning, BTC was up 0.03% to $30,390. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $30,311 before rising to a high of $30,453.
Daily Chart
The Daily Chart showed BTC/USD hover below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band but continued to avoid sub-$30,000.
BTC/USD remained above the 50-day ($29,331) and 200-day ($26,636) EMAs, signaling bullish momentum over the near and longer term. Notably, the 50-day EMA continued to pull away from the 200-day EMA and reflected bullish momentum.
Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 53.80 reading signaled a bullish outlook and aligned with the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, supporting a move through the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band to retarget $32,000.
4-Hourly Chart
Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the BTC/USD faces strong resistance at the $30,500 psychological level. BTC/USD sits below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band and the 50-day EMA ($30,585) but above the 200-day EMA ($29,773), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term signals.
Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed on the 200-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$30,000. However, a move through the 50-day EMA ($30,575) would support a breakout from the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band to target $32,000.
The 14-4H RSI reading of 44.55 indicates a bearish stance and aligns with the 50-day EMA, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI signals near-term bearish momentum and a return to sub-$30,000.
ETF Uncertainty Leaves BTC in a Sideways Move at Sub-$30,500
It was a quiet Sunday session. There were no crypto events to move the dial. While SEC v Ripple Court ruling-related chatter continued flooding the news wires, sentiment toward the SEC approving the recent BTC ETF applications likely left BTC at sub-$30,500.
As speculation rose on a likely SEC appeal, uncertainty hit the markets following the Thursday breakout session. An SEC reaction to the Court ruling could include declining the BTC Spot ETF applications despite the SEC recently approving a leveraged BTC-ETF product.
The threat of an SEC appeal added to the bearish mood, with an appeal capable of delaying regulatory reform to deliver clarity and investor protection.
However, Senator Cynthia Lummis issued a statement, looking to leverage off the SEC v Ripple Court ruling, saying,
“I applaud the decision of the Southern District of New York finding that crypto assets traded in secondary markets may not be investment contracts. This is the position that section 501 of the Lummis-Gillibrand Responsible Financial Innovation Act has taken from the beginning. The decision confirms the need for Congress to deliver a clear regulatory structure for the crypto asset industry that provides the highest level of consumer protection. We need to pass Lummis-Gillibrand to uphold the Howey test as interpreted by the Southern District of New York.”
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet Monday session, with no US economic indicators to impact investor sentiment. However, investors should continue to monitor the crypto news wires for SEC v Ripple-related chatter and significant crypto events.
After the SEC v Ripple ruling, ETF chatter, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will remain the focal points.
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