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Natural Gas Forecast Video for 24.07.23 by Bruce Powers
Natural gas confirms a weekly bullish reversal with a daily close of 2.76 on Thursday. Last week’s high was 2.75 while the high for the day was 2.79. The advance off the 2.48 swing low from four days ago also closed above the 200-Day EMA on Thursday. This is an additional confirmation of strength. These signs are encouraging to the bulls as a breakout day was not only a breakout, but additional bullish signs were confirmed by the close.
Pauses as Inside Day
Today, Friday, natural gas has traded inside day with a narrow range day near the top of yesterday’s range. An inside day is a rest day and since the range is near the top of Thursday range, it is more bullish than if the range was lower down. It shows buyers holding up price.
Watch for Next Week Breakout Above 2.79
For next week, a breakout above today’s 2.79 high is bullish but only if followed by a continuation higher. Yesterday’s wide range breakout day (wide green candle), close above a weekly high, close near the high of the day, and close above the 200-Day EMA are all signs of improving momentum which should be sustainable. The more sustainable the faster the possibility of hitting higher targets. This means that the strongest next action is a continuation into new trend highs within a day or two. Further consolidation or retracement in the near-term adds to the uncertainty.
Bullish Signs Need Further Confirmation
Nevertheless, a continuation of today’s retracement could be in the works before natural gas is ready to progress higher. The small downtrend line is a potential area of support along with yesterday’s low at 2.62. Then there is the important 34-Day EMA potential support zone around 2.57. Notice that the angle of ascent has improved recently as can be seen in the slope of the uptrend lines. One final comment regarding the 200-Day EMA. A daily close above that line happened on two days at the prior rally high. So, this time two day closes above the 200-Day line will match and three will exceed. Also, a daily close above the last swing high at 2.88 will satisfy a decisive breakout. Until then we’ll be watching for signs of strengthening relative to the 200-Day EMA.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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