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Key Insights:
- On Monday, BTC tumbled to sub-$29,000 before a partial recovery to end the day down 2.96% to $29,296.
- Binance-related news weighed, with Fed Fear adding the bearish sentiment.
- The near-term technical indicators remained bearish, signaling a return to sub-$28,500.
On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 2.96%. Reversing a 0.97% gain from Sunday, BTC ended the day at $29,296. Significantly, BTC revisited sub-$29,000 for the first time since June 21.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
This morning, BTC was down 0.40% to $29,179. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $29,310 before falling to a low of $29,164.
Daily Chart
The Daily Chart showed BTC/USD sitting below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, BTC also fell through the 50-day EMA ($29,451) while holding above the 200-day EMA ($26,878), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, supporting further losses.
Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 41.30 reading signaled a bearish outlook. Aligning with the 50-day EMA, the RSI signals a fall through $28,500 to give the bears a run at the $27,500 – $26,850 support band. However, a move through the 50-day EMA ($29,451) would support a run at $30,000 and the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.
4-Hourly Chart
Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC remains below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band and fell through the 200-day EMA ($29,835), signaling bearish price momentum.
Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed on the 200-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$28,500. However, a BTC move through the 200-day ($29,835) and 50-day ($29,963) EMAs would support a run at the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.
The 14-4H RSI reading of 30.44 indicates a bearish stance, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, signaling near-term bearish momentum and a return to sub-$28,500.
Binance Wash Trading Chatter and the Fed Send BTC South
It was a busier Monday session. While SEC plans to appeal the Judge Torres Court ruling remained a focal point, Binance-related news sent BTC and the broader crypto market into the deep red.
On Monday, news hit the wires of the SEC alleging Binance.US wash trading after launch. The Wall Street Journal reported that $70,000 of BTC changed hands within the first hour, with Binance CEO CZ saying, “That was ourself, I think.”
According to the Wall Street Journal Report,
“The day after the platform (Binance.US) was launched in September 2019, wash trading between Sigma Chain accounts and accounts owned by Zhao and senior employees constituted nearly 70% of trading volume for one token, the SEC alleged.”
The latest WSJ report could leave Binance.US, Binance, and CZ in a precarious position if there is evidence of wash trading.
Fed Fear added to the bearish mood, with investors betting on a final 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike on Wednesday. A more hawkish policy outlook would spook investors.
The Day Ahead
It could be a busy day for BTC and the broader market. SEC v Ripple chatter, ETF updates, and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will need consideration.
Investors will also need to track the US economic calendar, with US consumer confidence numbers for July in focus as the FOMC meeting gets underway.
However, US lawmaker chatter will also need consideration.
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