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Key Insights:
- ETH tracked the broader crypto market into the green, gaining 0.75% to end the day at $1,875.
- Staking statistics and US economic indicators delivered price support.
- However, the shorter-term technical indicators remain bearish, signaling a fall to sub-$1,800.
Ethereum (ETH) gained 0.75% on Friday. Reversing a 0.64% fall from Thursday, ETH ended the day at $1,875. Despite the bullish session, ETH fell short of $1,900 for the fifth consecutive session.
Ethereum Price Action
This morning, ETH was flat at $1,875. A range-bound start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,878 before easing back.
Daily Chart
The Daily Chart showed ETH hovering within the $1,895 – $1,865 support band. However, ETH sat above the 50-day ($1,872) and 200-day ($1,781) EMAs, sending bullish near and longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, a bullish price signal.
However, looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 48.77 reading sends a bearish signal, supporting a fall through the 50-day EMA ($1,872) and the $1,815 – $1,795 support band to target the 200-day EMA ($1,781). However, an ETH hold above the 50-day EMA ($1,872) would support a breakout from the $1,865 – $1,895 support band to target $1,950.
4-Hourly Chart
Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the ETH/USD faces strong resistance at $1,875. ETH sits within the $1,895 – $1,865 support band. However, ETH stood above the 50-day EMA ($1,874) while below the 200-day EMA ($1,880), sending bullish near-term but bearish longer-term price signals.
However, a move through the 200-day EMA ($1,880) and the $1,895 – $1,865 support band would give the bulls a run at $1,950.
The 14-4H RSI reading of 54.90 sends bullish ETH price signals, with buying pressure outweighing selling pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, supporting a breakout from the 200-day EMA ($1,880).
Staking Statistics and US Economic Indicators Provide Price Support
US economic indicators provided ETH and the broader market price support on Friday. US Core PCE Price Index figures for June delivered price support.
The US Core PCE Price Index increased by 4.1% year-over-year in June versus 4.6% in May. Economists forecast an increase of 4.2%. Easing bets on a September Fed rate hike supported the soft-landing theory. The US economy expanded by 2.4% in Q2 versus 2.0% in the first quarter, siding with Fed staff expectations the US would avoid a recession.
Staking statistics from Thursday also supported a bullish session, with staking inflows and a rise in the staking APR providing support.
However, the upside was modest, with investor sentiment toward SEC Chair Gary Gensler and the chances of the SEC approving the BTC ETFs weighing.
This week, the SEC Chair delivered more anti-crypto rhetoric, classifying ‘many’ tokens as securities while staying coy about SEC plans to appeal the SEC v Ripple Court ruling. Investors remain sensitive to SEC chatter, with the SEC also considering ETH a security.
Staking Statistics Send Bullish Price Signals
According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows surged from 63,104 ETH on Thursday to 141,600 on Friday. Significantly, inflows broke through the 100,000 threshold, a bullish price signal.
The overnight withdrawal profile was bearish, with principal withdrawals at above-normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session are bullish. Projections show ETH withdrawals will return to normal withdrawal levels.
On Friday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a 64,490 ETH surplus ($120.46 million), up 9.10% over 24 hours. Deposits totaled 69,760 versus withdrawals of 5,280 ETH.
According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 37,430 ETH, equivalent to approximately $70.16 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.56%, down 4.30% over 24 hours. While the staking APR downward trend is bearish, the surge in staking inflows is a bullish price scenario.
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