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Key Insights:
- ETH saw red for the third consecutive session on Friday, falling 0.22% to end the day at $1,848.
- US inflation, ARK Invest ETF-related news, and the SEC overshadowed more bullish staking statistics.
- The shorter-term technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $1,900.
Ethereum (ETH) fell by 0.22% on Friday. Following a 0.16% loss on Thursday, ETH ended the day at $1,848. Significantly, ETH ended the day at sub-$1,850 for the first time in four sessions.
Ethereum Price Action
This morning, ETH was up 0.07% to $1,849.
Daily Chart
The Daily Chart showed ETH hovering below the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band. ETH sat below the 50-day EMA ($1,861) while holding above the 200-day ($1,790), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, a bearish price signal.
Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 47.20 reading reflects bearish sentiment, supporting a fall through the $1,815 – $1,795 support band to target the 200-day EMA ($1,789). However, an ETH move through the 50-day EMA ($1,861) would support a breakout from the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band to target $1,950.
4-Hourly Chart
Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the ETH/USD faces strong resistance at $1,850. ETH sits below the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band and the 200-day EMA ($1,860). However, ETH moved through the 50-day EMA ($1,846), sending bullish near-term but bearish longer-term price signals.
This morning the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, a bullish price signal.
An ETH move through the 200-day EMA ($1,860) would support a breakout from the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band to target $1,950. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($1,946) would bring the $1,815 – $1,795 support band into play.
The 14-4H RSI reading of 52.62 reflects moderately bullish sentiment, with buying pressure outweighing selling pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, supporting a breakout from the 200-day EMA and the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band.
On Friday, the SEC likely delayed applications for spot ETH ETFs. The SEC turned to the public for comment on the ARK Invest spot BTC ETF application, dashing hopes of an August approval. The additional review process gives the SEC 21 more days to approve or disapprove the application.
Players, including Blackrock (BLK) and Fidelity, are unlikely to apply for spot ETH ETFs without the SEC approving one, some, or all of the spot BTC ETF applications.
SEC plans to appeal the Judge Torres Ruling remained a headwind, with the SEC creating more market uncertainty. The Judge Torres Ruling was bullish for cryptos thrown into the SEC’s Crypto Securities Basket. Earlier this year, SEC Chair Gary Gensler threw ETH into the Securities Basket, exposing ETH to SEC activity in the digital asset space.
US producer price index numbers for July added to the bearish mood, with US inflation numbers from Thursday and Friday leaving the door open to more Fed interest rate hikes.
However, staking statistics were more upbeat going into the Friday session, limiting the downside.
Staking Statistics Send Bullish Signals
According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows increased from 66,400 ETH on Thursday to 104,192. Staking inflows turned bullish, with staking inflows exceeding 100,000 for the first time in August.
The overnight withdrawal profile was mixed, with principal withdrawals spiking before returning to normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session turned bullish. Projections show ETH withdrawals will stay at below-normal withdrawal levels.
On Friday, the net staking balance stood at a 51,720 ETH surplus ($95.82 million), up 29% over 24 hours. Deposits totaled 68,570 versus withdrawals of 16,850 ETH.
According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 46,880 ETH, equivalent to approximately $86.65 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 4.95%, down 13.46% over 24 hours. While the downward trend in staking APR is bearish, the spike in staking inflows and withdrawal projections are bullish price signals.
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