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Key Insights:
- XRP recovered with a 1.05% gain on Friday, offsetting some of its previous 2.74% loss.
- A looming US government shutdown threatens to disrupt the ongoing SEC v Ripple lawsuit.
- A prolonged shutdown could see the SEC reducing operations, furloughing 90% of its staff.
The Friday Overview
On Friday, XRP gained 1.05%. Partially reversing a 2.74% loss on Thursday, XRP ended the day at $0.5123.
SEC v Ripple Case May Hit Pause on US Government Shutdown
The threat of a lengthy US government shutdown continues to rise as Congress fails to deliver funding for the new fiscal year, starting October 1, 2023.
According to Reuters, Federal courts have sufficient funds to remain open until at least October 13. After October 13, the courts will likely reduce activity. The US District Court for the Southern District of New York is hearing the SEC v Ripple case.
An extended shutdown could delay a ruling on the SEC motion for interlocutory appeal and leave XRP investors in limbo for an unknown period.
A shutdown would also impact the Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC would suspend most activities and furlough about 90% of its 4,600 employees.
This week, SEC Chair Gary Gensler spoke to Bloomberg about cryptos and securities and the impact of a government shutdown, saying,
“We are appropriated agencies and so, the public should understand that we will largely be a skeletal staff under the laws. And so, the normal oversight we have on markets will not be possible.”
There were no court rulings on the SEC’s motion for an interlocutory appeal to influence investor sentiment. It is unclear whether the courts will expedite court rulings that could face a lengthy delay in the case of a government shutdown.
The Saturday Session
SEC v Ripple and SEC v Coinbase (COIN) case-related updates need consideration. The markets remain sensitive to updates, with investors also needing to monitor the news wires for a ruling on the Binance motion to dismiss.
However, crypto-spot ETF-related news will also influence buyer appetite.
XRP Price Action
Daily Chart
XRP hovered below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish price signals. A break above the 200-day EMA would support an XRP move to the trend line and 50-day EMA. Selling pressure will intensify at $0.5320, with the 50-day EMA confluent to the trend line.
However, a fall through the $0.5042 support level would give the bears a run at $0.48.
The 49.42 14-Daily RSI reading supports an XRP break below the $0.5042 support level before entering oversold territory.
4-Hourly Chart
XRP sits above the 50-day EMA while hovering below the 200-day EMA, sending bullish near-term but bearish longer-term price signals.
An XRP break below the 50-day EMA and $0.5042 support level would bring sub-$0.48 into play. Buying pressure will likely build at $0.5060, with the 50-day EMA confluent to the $0.5042 support level.
A break above the 200-day EMA would support an XRP move to the trend line.
The 14-4 Hourly RSI 52.65 reading supports an XRP break above the 200-day EMA before entering overbought territory.
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