Axie Infinity (AXS) Price Could Hit All-Time Lows Ahead of $70M Unlock

Key Insights:

• Despite a 13% surge in the global altcoin markets in September 2023, Axie Infinity (AXS) price has failed to breach the $5 resistance level. 
• Axie Infinity is scheduled to unlock 15 million AXS tokens valued at $70 million on October 20.
• Recent on-chain data readings reveal that Axie Infinity whales are hastily closing their positions ahead of the upcoming token unlock event.

Axie Infinity (AXS) price failed multiple attempts at breaching the $5 resistance level despite renewed optimism in the altcoin markets. A closer examination of historical on-chain data sheds light on potential AXS price action in the coming weeks.

Crypto Whales Begin a Sell-off Ahead of October 20 Token Unlock Event

Axie Infinity is gearing up for a significant token unlock event scheduled for October 20. This eagerly anticipated event will see  15.13 million AXS tokens (equivalent to ~$69 million) added to the circulation supply.

On-chain data trends reveal that a group of whale investors have been taking bearish positions to front-run the potential inflationary pressure 

As shown in the chart below, crypto whales hold 100,000 to 1 million AXS, have been selling frantically this week. 

As of October 2, these crypto whales collectively held a total of 34.66 million AXS tokens. Astonishingly, in just three days, their combined holdings dwindled to 34.2 million tokens.

This reduction signifies the sale of approximately 460,000 AXS tokens, with an estimated value of $2.07 million. 

Interestingly, this pattern closely mirrors the bearish precedent set during the previous token unlock event on July 22, 2023. The whales had sold 1.85 million AXS tokens between July 5 and July 21.

And notably, AXS price experienced a 26% decline within 30 days of the July 22 token unlock.

It’s worth noting that the upcoming token unlock, valued at $70 million, is four times larger than the previous event. 

Consequently, it is highly likely that other stakeholders within the Axie Infinity ecosystem will join the bearish trend in the weeks leading up to the event.

AXS Price Prediction: Possible Dowswing Toward $4

From an on-chain perspective, the October 20 token unlock will likely drive Axie Infinity price into a downswing toward $4.

The daily Technical analysis chart also also buttresses this bearish prediction. It shows that if AXS loses vital support at $4.09, it could catalyze a prolonged downswing to history lows.

Alternatively, the bulls could invalidate that bearish narrative if Axie Infinity’s price can reclaim $7. But that currently appears farfetch as the $5.13 resistance will likely prove daunting.

But if the bulls can clear that level, Axie Infinity price could rally toward the $7 range.