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US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis
The US dollar has gone back and forth during trading on Thursday again, as we continue to threaten the ¥150 level. The ¥150 level is an area that has offered resistance multiple times, but it’s likely that we could continue to go much higher, if we can break above that level on a daily close. The ¥152 level above is a major resistance barrier, and if we were to break above there, then the market could open up the possibility of more of a “buy-and-hold” type of situation.
Underneath the current trading area, there is so much in the way of support that I think you have to look at this through the prism of finding value every time it dips. The 147.8 level underneath is a major significant support level, right along with the 50-Day EMA. The 50-Day EMA has been very reliable in the past, so there’s no reason to think that it will suddenly change. I do think at this point, it’s very unlikely that we break down and I do think that it’s probably only a matter of time before we break above the ¥150 level quite significantly.
There is the possibility of a potential breakout that gets repudiated, but I think it’s probably only a matter of time before the interest-rate differential continues to be far too much for the market to ignore. The Bank of Japan has been dabbling in the bond market again, and this means that they are doing direct quantitative easing.
In other words, the Japanese are not going to change their attitude anytime soon, and although the ¥150 level has been a bit of a barrier, if you squint, you can see on the chart that there is an ascending triangle that looks like it’s ready to be broken out of. Regardless, I have no interest in selling this pair, and therefore I just look for value and take advantage of it. I believe that this is the fate of the Japanese yen against most currencies, and the psychology of ¥150 is probably the biggest barrier it faces right now.
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