S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Market Looks Weak

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 continues to see a lot of negativity, and why not? After all, there are a plethora of problems around the world, and we are in the midst of Q3 earnings. This of course will attract a lot of attention due to the fact that the market is going to have to deal with statements coming out of CEOs of various companies suggesting that perhaps the economy is starting to slow down. This has been a game that we’ve been playing for a while, and now people are essentially begging the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy, which they don’t look likely to do anytime soon.

The 50% Fibonacci level recently has offered support, but now it looks like we are going to test that area again. If we break down below it, then it opens up a move down to the 4200 level, and then the 61.8% Fibonacci level. To the upside, we have the 50-Day EMA offering resistance, which of course is an indicator that a lot of people will pay close attention to. In this scenario, I like the idea of fading short-term rallies, at least until we break above the 50-Day EMA on a daily close. I think it does make a certain amount of sense that we have consolidation with a slant toward the downside, because that’s essentially what we have seen over the last couple of months anyway, let’s be honest here: the situation hasn’t gotten any better when it comes to the overall world.

If we did break above the 50-Day EMA, then it’s possible that we could head back toward the 4500 level, but right now I think there are far too many landmines out there to think that we are going to get a huge move to the upside. Sure, you can trade this market back and forth in the somewhat defined range that we have been in, but you also need to recognize that the markets are very nervous at the moment, so therefore volatile moves could suddenly appear when you least expect them. With this, position sizing will be crucial, and of course you should keep an ear to the news.

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