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Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar initially rallied during the course of the week but is running into a little bit of trouble at this point. Alternatively, the market is going to continue to see a lot of volatility, but we are very much in a downtrend, so I think you need to look at it through the prism of fading rallies, which has been the case for some time. The 0.64 level above is significant resistance, as it has shown itself to be multiple times again.
The 50-Day EMA is sitting right around the 0.64 level and the major downtrend line that we had been in previously. With this, I think you got a situation where we have somewhat limited upside, and of course there are a lot of fundamental reasons to think that perhaps the Aussie is going to struggle with. Geopolitical concerns are reason enough to think that the US dollar could probably continue to be popular as well, but the higher interest rates in the US will continue to make the greenback more attractive. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to global growth and of course commodities, so therefore it’s likely that we will continue to see this as a situation where traders are just simply not willing to go out that far into the risk spectrum.
If we were to break down below the lows of the hammer on Thursday, the market could then go down to the 0.6250 level, possibly down to the 0.62 level. After that, then the market could go down to the 0.60 level. As far as a bullish scenario is concerned, if we broke above the 0.64 level on a daily close, you’d have to think that something is changing, but I don’t really have any interest in buying the Aussie until we clear at least the 0.65 level. With that, I think you continue to look for signs of weakness that you can take advantage of, which is something that I think is probably only a matter of time anyway. Keep your position size reasonable and recognize that we are essentially stuck in a rather tight consolidation area.
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