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Is Storage Tight Enough to Support Prices?
Total working gas in storage now stands at 2,397 Bcf, which is 208 Bcf lower than the same period last year and 111 Bcf below the five-year average. While this signals a tightening supply picture, inventories remain within the historical range, limiting immediate bullish pressure.
Regionally, the largest drawdowns occurred in the Midwest (-56 Bcf) and South Central (-47 Bcf), reflecting stronger heating demand in those areas. The East pulled 45 Bcf, while smaller declines were recorded in the Pacific (-16 Bcf) and Mountain (-12 Bcf) regions. Notably, the South Central salt storage saw a sharper decline of 12 Bcf, highlighting potential volatility in near-term supply balances.
Weather Signals Mixed Demand Ahead
Current weather patterns show a divided U.S., with the northern third experiencing frigid temperatures and snow, while the southern two-thirds remain mild. NatGasWeather projects light national demand through the weekend but anticipates a sharp increase to high demand levels next week as colder air pushes southward.
This shift could provide some support for prices, particularly if colder trends persist beyond mid-February. However, the market remains cautious, as recent mild conditions have kept withdrawals in line with seasonal expectations rather than triggering a sustained price breakout.
Technical Levels Define Near-Term Direction
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