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The rally into today’s high rubbed along a trend line dating back to 2023. This may repel prices, even though the pattern appears incomplete.
We mentioned above how today’s high could be the end of wave 5 and the entire impulse dating back to 2022. However, there is another possibility we are closely monitoring that suggests a larger decline is about to unfold back to about $2,500.
Under this model, wave 4 is still incomplete. Today’s high would be wave ((b)) of 4. A decline to about $2,500 would become wave ((c)) of 4.
This would bring wave 4 more in line with the price and time correction of its cousin, wave 2.
You see, the first wave count I shared above included a wave 4 triangle that was shallow in price and time when compared to wave 2. Therefore, we are keeping an open mind about what pattern could extend wave 4’s time and depth and the red labels shown above would do that.
Bottom Line
Gold appears to have an incomplete Elliott wave sequence to the upside.
Multiple models suggest a decline to $2760-$2830. From there, the models diverge with one Elliott wave model suggesting a rally to new all-time highs, while another model suggests a continued decline back to $2,500. At $2,500, wave 4 would complete and wave 5 unfolds to new all-time highs.
Either way, we are anticipating new all-time highs to develop, but starting from lower levels.
Short-Term Bias: Bearish
Long-Term Bias: Bullish
Key Level for Bullish Bias: $2,500
Initial Target: $3,400
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