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Analysts’ Estimates for NVDA Earnings
Nvidia has a consistent history of exceeding estimates and raising expectations. Wall Street forecasts Nvidia’s revenue will reach US$38.1 billion for Q4 FY2025, reflecting an eye-watering 73% year-on-year (YY) rise. Should actual revenue align with expectations, it would surpass the company’s Q3 FY2025 estimate (US$37.5 billion). Nvidia’s bottom line (net income) is also projected to climb to US$21.08 billion, up from US$12.84 billion in the same quarter a year prior. Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) is also expected to increase to US$0.84, which would mark a 62% YY rise.
Regarding current analysts’ ratings (Refinitiv), approximately 54% recommend a ‘Buy’, 37% a ‘Strong Buy’, and 9% suggest a ‘Hold’.
The options implied volatility for the stock suggests the company’s share price could swing 8% in either direction. However, I want to add that although heightened volatility is evident heading into the event, it is important to consider that implied volatility reflects how far options investors anticipate the stock price to move. Consequently, it is not always reliable and has, in the past, fluctuated as high as 16% and as low as 0.5% before NVDA earnings reports.
Blackwell Chip Supply Concerns
Concerns remain high over the Blackwell chip supply. If manufacturing issues regarding this are mentioned in today’s report and the share price drops, some investors may see this as a dip-buying opportunity, given that supply problems are likely temporary. This, coupled with limited evidence of a slowdown in demand, potentially positions the stock well for the future.
Of course, while Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek recently carved out a dent in Nvidia’s share price, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently made the headlines, commenting that although DeepSeek’s R1 reasoning model is ‘impressive’, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) space will still need to rely on Nvidia’s chips. I expect Huang to reiterate similar comments today.
Supporting Huang’s latest comments, it is worth acknowledging that all of the key US Hyperscalers – large data centres and cloud service providers that offer computing and data solutions – confirmed capital expenditures on AI data centres.
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