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Oil News: Bearish Outlook as Tariff Concerns and Iraqi Exports Pressure Prices

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At 11:11 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $69.34, down $1.01 or -1.44%.

Tariff Concerns and Iraq’s Export Resumption Weigh on Oil Prices

Oil prices slipped 1% on Friday, with both Brent and WTI benchmarks poised for their first monthly drop since November. The market is reacting to U.S. tariff threats and Iraq’s decision to resume oil exports from the Kurdistan region. Iraq’s oil ministry announced plans to export 185,000 barrels per day (bpd) through state marketer SOMO, with volumes expected to increase gradually.

This development raises compliance concerns regarding Iraq’s OPEC+ commitments, as noted by Onyx Capital Group’s Harry Tchilinguirian. Should OPEC+ delay the return of 120,000 bpd of voluntary cuts in April, Iraq’s increased output might offset these measures, adding to supply pressures.

Trump’s Tariff Moves Add to Market Uncertainty

Investor sentiment has also been dampened by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements. Effective March 4, a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods and an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports will be implemented. The tariff escalation raises concerns about global demand, with Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank warning of potential impacts on growth, inflation, and crude oil consumption.

Expectations of a U.S. economic slowdown, alongside the potential for increased Russian oil supply if peace talks in Ukraine progress, are further curbing risk appetite. Additional pressure stems from higher-than-expected U.S. jobless claims and signs of slowing economic growth in the fourth quarter.

Saudi Arabia May Cut April Oil Prices for Asia

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, may slightly reduce its official selling prices (OSP) for April crude shipments to Asia. Traders surveyed by Reuters anticipate cuts of 20 to 65 cents per barrel for Arab Light crude, setting April prices at a premium of $3.25 to $3.70 per barrel against the Oman/Dubai average, down from March’s $3.90 premium.

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