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The presence of the President’s Working Group on Digital Assets could prove significant. President Trump signed an Executive Order on January 23, establishing the President’s Working Group on Digital Assets.
The Working Group was tasked with evaluating the creation of a strategic national digital assets stockpile. The reference to a digital assets stockpile raised concerns that the government may not prioritize a national Strategic BTC Reserve (SBR), contributing to BTC’s recent retreat.
Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the Bitcoin Act, proposing the US government acquire one million BTC over five years, with a 20-year mandatory holding period. If enacted, the policy could significantly impact Bitcoin’s supply, potentially pushing BTC to record highs.
BTC could reverse February’s losses if the Working Group signals progress toward a US SBR. However, if the government decides to maintain its current crypto stockpile rather than pursue reserve asset status, BTC demand could remain weak.
BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers
BTC’s trajectory depends on US tariff policies, Fed rate cut expectations, US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) developments, and ETF flow trends.
- Bullish Scenario: US BTC-spot ETF inflows and progress toward a US SBR could mitigate US tariff risks and a dovish Fed, driving BTC beyond the record high of $109,312.
- Bearish Scenario: Government opposition to a US SBR, US tariffs, and a hawkish Fed could pull BTC below $80k.
Dive deeper into the influence of macroeconomic data, US crypto policies, and BTC-spot ETF market flows on price action. Follow our analysis and forecasts here to manage crypto-related risks.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
After February’s losses, BTC is in a mixed trend, trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs sent bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.
A break above the $86,263 resistance level could signal a move toward the $90,742 resistance level. If BTC broke out from the $90,742 resistance level, the bulls could target the 50-day EMA next.
Conversely, if BTC breaks below the 200-day EMA, the bears could target $80,000.
With a 31.16 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading, BTC may drop below the 200-day EMA before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).
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