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Breakout Above Tuesday’s High
A decisive breakout above today’s high would trigger a one-day bullish reversal breakout and put crude in a position to challenge higher trend resistance areas. The potentially more significant resistance zone is first around the 20-Day MA, now at $71.11.
For crude to have a shot of going higher and potentially reversing the bearish trend it needs to first get above and stay above the 20-Day line. That moving average can be viewed along with the downtrend line marking dynamic resistance for the decline. A decisive breakout above the line would put crude in a position to challenge potential resistance around the 50-Day MA, which is $73.23 currently.
Bounce off Monthly Support
It is important to consider several key factors when addressing support at the daily low point. Support was seen near an interim swing low of $66.86 from mid-November, and near the lower channel line for the current decline. That November support level was also a monthly low. Although the lower line was not hit specifically, the correction got close enough given the subsequent bullish reaction.
Moreover, a measured move for the correction shows a $13.79 or 17.1% decline from the most recent swing high at $80.76. The four prior bearish corrections in crude oil ranged from a decline of 14.8% to 18.3%. Since the current decline was close to matching the largest recent drop on a percentage basis, it provides another piece of evidence to support the likely completion of the correction. The fact that a sharp intraday bullish reversal followed further supports this thesis.
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