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“With the Trump Administration apparently running out of fresh ideas to boost digital asset prices, the driver of Bitcoin’s price will be US trade policy, recession fears and risk appetite.”
Investors must now monitor the progress of Senator Cynthia Lummis’ Bitcoin Act in Congress. Senator Lummis introduced the bill, proposing the US government purchase one million BTC over five years, with a 20-year mandatory holding period.
BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers
BTC’s trajectory depends on US tariff policies, Fed rate cut expectations, US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) developments, and ETF flow trends.
- Bullish Scenario: ETF inflows and progress on Senator Cynthia Lummis’ Bitcoin Act could offset tariff risks and recession fears, potentially driving BTC beyond its record high of $109,312.
- Bearish Scenario: Opposition to the Bitcoin Act, trade war escalation, or a hawkish Fed could push BTC below $80K.
Dive deeper into the influence of macroeconomic data, US crypto policies, and BTC-spot ETF market flows on price action. Follow our analysis and forecasts here to manage crypto-related risks.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
After the latest sell-off, BTC is in a mixed trend, trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs sent bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.
A break above the $86,263 resistance level could enable the bulls to target the $90,742 resistance level. If BTC breaks out from the $90,742 resistance level, the 50-day EMA would be the next key resistance level.
Conversely, if BTC drops below the 200-day EMA, the bears could target $80,000.
With a 40.76 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading, BTC may drop to the March 4 low of $81,501 before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).
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