Applying the Elliott Wave to Morgan Stanley’s “$200 than $800” Forecast for Tesla

From Figures 1 and 2, it follows that TSLA adheres well to trendline support and resistance as it has held A) above the ascending lower grey dotted trendline since 2020 and B) below the descending grey dotted trendline from the 2021 high to the summer of 2024. Besides, these two critical trendlines cross in June of this year at around $170, almost exactly where the black W-c equals the black W-a, measured from the top of W-b: blue target zone. We have high confidence in this target zone as price reached and reversed strongly from the red and green boxes we forecasted for the respective pullbacks in 2023 and 2024.

Moreover, we expect TSLA to wrap up its final 4^th and 5^th wave(s), as shown in Figure 2, to complete the five-wave impulsive c-wave. This can take several weeks to months. The red W-iv should ideally target the 200-day simple moving average at the lower blue dotted trendline at around $280 in May.

Thus, using the EWP, we find that Tesla’s shares can target around $175 to complete a complex, protracted, Primary 4^th wave as an “irregular running flat”. These corrective patterns are typical for 4^th waves. Once reached, it can rally to new ATHs and $800 is not out of the realm of possibilities. Thus, based on the EWP, MS’s claim is right on the money, even for a “modest” $430 target.