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Last week, President Trump threatened 200% tariffs on EU wine and spirits after the EU introduced a 50% levy on US whiskey.
Despite the increasing focus on US terms, the Bundestag vote remains the primary market-moving event for the EU.
What the Polls Say
Oliver Rakau, Chief German Economist and ECB Commentator at Oxford Economics conducted a poll on X (formerly Twitter), asking whether Germany’s fiscal splurge will pass the Bundestag and Bundesrat:
- Yes, for sure: 37.4%.
- Probably yes: 55.4%.
- Probably no: 4.3%.
- No way: 2.9%.
The results highlight investor optimism toward the vote and its potential to drive demand for German-listed stocks.
US Market Recap: US Retail Sales Ease Recession Fears
On Monday, March 18, US equity markets posted gains, consolidating the March 14 relief rally. Progress toward ending the Ukraine war and US economic data bolstered demand for risk assets.
The Dow and the S&P 500 rose 0.85% and 0.64%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.31%.
US retail sales increased by a modest 0.2% month-on-month (MoM) in February after tumbling 1.2% in January. The softer-than-expected rise in retail sales supported expectations of a more dovish Fed rate path.
Meanwhile, the retail sales control group—which excludes volatile components such as car sales, building materials, and gas stations—jumped by 1%, reversing January’s 1% drop. The February rebound eased recession concerns.
US Housing and Manufacturing Sectors in Focus
On March 18, US manufacturing and housing sector figures require consideration.
Economists forecast industrial production to rise 0.2% MoM in February after a 0.5% increase in January. An unexpected fall may retrigger recession fears, weighing on risk sentiment. However, a stronger industrial production reading may signal economic resilience, boosting demand for stocks.
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