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Based on the weekly and monthly chart, where we count down weeks and months as corrective, 2nd, and 4th waves, allowing us to account for >99% of all price action, we find Bitcoin still needs at least one larger (red W-v) higher. Fourth waves tend to typically retrace 38.2% of the prior third wave, which in this case targets $77350. The correction in August 2024 reached the lower end of such a zone on a closing basis. See the blue horizontal arrows in Figure 1A. Besides, July 2021 and September 2017 saw 56 and 43% declines, respectively, which places the current ~30% decline in perspective. See Figure 1B.
The weekly RSI5 reached ~22 in early March, and such low readings during the current Bull market coincided with significant bottoms; see Figure 1A. Lastly, the weekly MACD increased in December 2024 compared to March 2024, confirming the higher prices (dotted green arrow). Thus, the price charts’ EWP count and technical indicators suggest the Bull is not dead.
The Weight of the Evidence Approach
Since it pays to shop around, aka get a 3rd party opinion, it is prudent to see if other pundits’ insights align with one’s assessment.
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