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To the downside, initial support is seen at $66.83. A failure there would expose the minor low at $66.09 and the more significant bottom at $65.01. Although the trend remains technically bearish, a sustained move above the 50-day moving average at $71.10 would mark a critical shift in market sentiment.
Iran Sanctions Tighten Global Supply Outlook
Fresh U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian crude exports added bullish pressure. Notably, the sanctions included for the first time an independent Chinese refiner, increasing the likelihood of enforcement. Analysts at ANZ Bank project Iranian exports could drop by up to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) due to these tighter restrictions. Kpler estimated Iran’s February exports at over 1.8 million bpd, though cautioned that actual volumes could be lower due to vessel obfuscation practices.
OPEC+ Plans Target Overproduction, Offset April Supply Hike
Further upside support came from a new OPEC+ agreement unveiled Thursday. Seven member nations will implement monthly production cuts ranging from 189,000 to 435,000 bpd, continuing through June 2026. These compensatory cuts are aimed at counterbalancing prior overproduction and cushioning against the group’s upcoming April output increase of 138,000 bpd, which reverses a portion of earlier curbs.
Crude Oil Market Outlook: Bullish Breakout on the Horizon
Despite the downward trend on moving averages, WTI is holding a bullish near-term structure. Geopolitical supply constraints and OPEC+ discipline provide strong fundamental backing. A confirmed breakout above $68.97 would likely trigger buying interest, targeting $70–$71 in the short term. As long as WTI holds above $66.83, the bias remains upward, with the market poised for a test of major resistance levels.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
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