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Investors are increasingly focused on upcoming U.S. macroeconomic releases, including Friday’s PCE Price Index, which may provide a clearer outlook on the Fed’s monetary policy stance.
Anticipation of U.S. tariffs set to begin April 2 on imports from 15 trading partners has further fueled demand for gold as a hedge against trade-related uncertainty.
“Gold remains supported by soft U.S. data and a weaker dollar,” noted a commodities strategist at a New York-based investment bank. “With the Fed under pressure to act, rate cut bets are increasingly being priced into the market.”
Weaker U.S. Data Reinforces Dovish Bias
Recent data signals softening economic conditions. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 92.9 in March, its lowest since 2020, while the Expectations Index fell to 65.2, a level historically associated with recessionary outlooks.
The U.S. dollar has since retreated from a recent high, helping non-yielding assets like gold gain traction.
While the Fed’s current forecast includes two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2024, market pricing suggests a more aggressive path, with expectations for cuts beginning as early as June.
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