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Is Soft Consumer Sentiment Really a Warning Sign?
Tuesday’s release of the Conference Board’s March consumer confidence report showed a steep drop in consumer expectations, the lowest in 12 years. Despite that, analysts like Paul Hickey of Bespoke Investment Group argue there’s a gap between soft sentiment data and actual economic activity.
Hickey noted that several key hard data points — including housing starts, industrial production, and new home sales — were in line or better than expected, suggesting no immediate economic downturn. His remarks reflect a growing trader sentiment that soft indicators might be overstating near-term risks.
Durable Goods Data Surprises to the Upside
Fresh data from the Commerce Department showed a 0.9% jump in February durable goods orders, significantly better than the expected 1% decline. Excluding transportation and defense, gains stood at 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively.
However, core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, fell 0.3%, hinting at caution among companies around capital expenditure. Traders may interpret the mixed data as a sign of resilience, though not without underlying fragility.
What Stocks Are on the Move?
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