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US Dollar Forecast: Price Action Tightens Around 200-Day MA as Kashkari Signals Patience

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Daily EUR/USD

The euro extended its losing streak, closing lower for the sixth straight session at $1.0766, its weakest since March 6. Traders showed little appetite to support the euro even as EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic met with U.S. officials to defuse tariff threats. Meanwhile, Bank of America reported stepped-up official sector euro selling, highlighting skepticism about a near-term shift away from dollar strength.

Durable Goods and BOJ Contrast Bolster Greenback

The dollar also drew modest support from an unexpected rise in U.S. durable goods orders, adding to a theme of resilience in core economic indicators. In contrast, dovish tones from the Bank of Japan underscored policy divergence. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and board member Junko Koeda acknowledged persistent inflation risks, but emphasized that real interest rates remain extremely low. The yen slipped to 150.48 per dollar as rate hike expectations remain capped by soft underlying inflation.

Kashkari Urges Patience on Policy Moves

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari struck a cautious tone, arguing that ongoing policy uncertainty surrounding tariffs complicates the central bank’s outlook.

Speaking in Detroit Lakes, Kashkari noted conflicting risks: tariffs could spur inflation or suppress growth, neutralizing each other and justifying a prolonged rate hold. He warned that sliding business and consumer sentiment could do more economic damage than the tariffs themselves, though he remained firm that the Fed must “finish the job” on inflation.

Market Forecast: Bullish Break or Another Rejection?

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