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Traders should also track tariff-related updates and FOMC members’ views on inflation and monetary policy.
Near-Term Outlook: Key Drivers
The DAX’s direction will depend on several key drivers: German inflation, tariff developments, and central bank commentary.
Potential DAX Scenarios:
- Bullish Case: Easing trade tensions, softer German inflation, or dovish central bank forward guidance may drive the DAX toward its record high of 23,476.
- Bearish Case: An escalation in tariff rhetoric, higher German inflation, or more hawkish central bank stances could drag the DAX toward 22,000.
As of Monday morning, the DAX futures were down 135 points, while the Nasdaq 100 mini dropped 263 points, pointing to a choppy session.
DAX Technical Indicators
Daily Chart:
Despite recent losses, the DAX remains above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), maintaining a bullish bias. However, tariff volatility presents a short-term risk.
- Upside Target: A breakout above 22,500 would support a push toward 22,750. A move through 22,750 could bring the 23,000 level into view.
- Downside risk: A drop below 22,350 could expose the 50-day EMA. A decisive break below the 50-day EMA would bring 22,000 into play.
With the RSI at 46.39, the DAX remains above oversold levels (below 30), leaving room for a drop to 22,000.
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