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Analysts warn that such measures could exacerbate global trade tensions, raising the risk of a slowdown in international commerce and potentially tipping the U.S. economy toward recession.
Even with downside pressure, gold continues to benefit from safe-haven flows. “The broader market is cautious, and gold is finding support from risk-off sentiment,” said a commodities strategist at a major European bank. “Tariff escalation has reignited concerns around economic stability.”
Silver Tracks Lower, but Risk Aversion Offers Support
Silver (XAG/USD) slipped to $31.40, following broader risk aversion across commodities and equities. While silver’s industrial component makes it more sensitive to growth expectations, its safe-haven demand remains supported.
A firmer U.S. dollar ahead of the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report also weighed on silver’s price. However, analysts expect downside in silver to remain limited, particularly if the NFP data reflects labor market softness or moderates expectations for U.S. growth.
Fed Rate Cut Bets and Yield Decline Anchor Gold
The Federal Reserve’s expected dovish stance continues to underpin gold’s resilience. Traders are pricing in as many as four rate cuts by the end of 2025.
Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4% for the first time in six months—a move that weakened the dollar and increased the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. According to futures data, markets now assign a 64% probability of a rate cut by July.
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