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Explore expert forecasts and trade setups for USD/JPY in our latest market analysis here.
Shifting focus to the Australian Dollar, labor market indicators and trade tensions take center stage.
AUD/USD Outlook: Jobs, Tariffs, and China
Turning to AUD/USD, the Aussie labor market will be in focus. Economists expect ANZ-Indeed Job Ads to rise 0.9% month-on-month in March after sliding 1.4% in February.
A rebound in job ads could indicate a tightening labor market and rising wages. Higher wages may fuel inflation, supporting a less dovish RBA rate path. Conversely, a further decline in job ads may impact wages and spending, dampening inflation. A softer inflation outlook would support a more dovish RBA rate path.
While labor market conditions are crucial for the RBA, trade tensions and weakening demand from China and Japan, Australia’s two largest export markets, could overshadow the data.
Trump’s tariffs have intensified global trade uncertainty, fueling speculation about multiple RBA rate cuts and impacting Aussie dollar demand. Given Australia’s trade-to-GDP ratio exceeds 50%, the Aussie dollar remains sensitive to shifts in global trade dynamics.
Natixis Asia Pacific Chief Economist Alicia Garcia Herrero commented on China’s retaliation to Trump’s tariffs:
“China has retaliated to US tariffs faster and stronger than any other country. Beijing’s latest round of tariffs suggested it was trying to position itself first in line for high-level negotiations with Washington.”
For a comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights, visit our detailed reports here.
Australian Dollar Daily Outlook: The Fed in Focus
During the US session, Fed rhetoric will influence AUD/USD. Hawkish commentary, favoring a delay to rate cuts, could widen the US-Aussie interest rate differential, favoring the US dollar. A wider rate differential may pull the AUD/USD pair toward the April 4 low of $0.59862.
Conversely, Fed support for multiple rate cuts would narrow the rate differential, supporting a rebound toward the 50-day EMA and the $0.63623 resistance level.
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