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Economists expect initial jobless claims to increase from 223k (week ending April 5) to 224k (week ending April 12).
A sharp increase above 250k could drive speculation about a US recession, potentially supporting a more dovish Fed stance. Conversely, an unexpected drop may dampen expectations for an H1 2025 Fed rate cut.
Beyond the data, FOMC members’ commentary could give insights into the Fed’s policy stance and views on tariffs.
Potential Price Scenarios:
- Bullish US Dollar Scenario: Easing trade tensions, stronger retail sales, lower jobless claims, or hawkish Fed rhetoric could drive USD/JPY toward 150.
- Bearish US Dollar Scenario: An escalating trade war, higher claims, softer retail sales, or dovish Fed chatter may push USD/JPY below 140.
Short-term Forecast:
USD/JPY trends this week will hinge on:
- Trade developments.
- Japan’s trade and inflation data.
- US retail sales and jobless claims.
USD/JPY Price Action
Daily Chart
On the daily chart, the USD/JPY remains below the 50-day and the 200-day EMAs, signaling bearish momentum.
A break above 145 could signal a move toward the 149.358 resistance level. A sustained climb above 149.358 may bring the 50-day EMA into play.
Conversely, a move below last week’s low of 142.048 could expose the September 2024 low of 139.576
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