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Markets Brace for Retail, Jobs Data This Week Under Weight of Tariff Risks

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Initial Jobless Claims Now in the Spotlight

Though typically considered a lower-tier release, Thursday’s jobless claims data will attract unusual attention as markets look for any indication of labor market cooling. For the week ending April 5, initial claims held steady at 223,000, while continuing claims fell by 43,000. With macro uncertainty and tariff-related headwinds on the radar, traders are bracing for signs that employers are beginning to scale back hiring.

Earnings From Financials, Tech, and Healthcare to Drive Sentiment

Several major earnings reports could set the tone for risk assets this week. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, and M&T Bank are among the financials releasing results. Investors will listen for comments on credit demand and margin pressure.

Netflix’s Thursday report is expected to be the first without subscriber data, while UnitedHealth Group’s release will gauge healthcare sector stability. TSMC’s earnings will be watched for clues on global semiconductor demand.

Housing Starts, Builder Sentiment May Highlight Supply Constraints

Thursday’s housing starts data and Wednesday’s homebuilder confidence index will offer insights into supply-side housing market challenges. Builders face higher input costs from tariffs, and inventory shortages remain a constraint for affordability.

Market Forecast: Bearish Bias with Earnings and Data Risks

Traders should maintain a cautious stance this week. Retail sales could confirm deteriorating consumer strength, and any surprise uptick in jobless claims may raise concerns about labor market softness. With earnings season ramping up and macro risks elevated, short-term market sentiment leans bearish.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

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