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The reversal will only be confirmed if gold takes out Monday’s low at $3193.63. That could open the door to a short-term pullback toward the pivot at $3101.20. Below that, the 50-day moving average at $2985.88 remains a strong level of longer-term support. On the upside, a move through $3245.85 would negate the pattern and likely signal the next leg higher.
Trade War Talk Fuels Safe-Haven Interest
Gold continues to find support from safe-haven flows tied to U.S. trade policy. President Trump is pushing for new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, with announcements expected this week. Federal filings show the administration is moving ahead with investigations, keeping markets on edge and supporting bullion as a hedge.
Fed Policy and Rate Cut Bets Boost Gold
Rate expectations remain a major tailwind. Fed funds futures are now pricing in 83 basis points of cuts for the year. Non-yielding gold typically benefits in a lower-rate environment, especially when the broader economy is showing signs of stress. Fed official Raphael Bostic called the U.S. economy “in a big pause,” signaling little appetite for policy tightening.
Physical Demand Out of China Adds Another Layer of Support
Physical demand out of Asia remains strong. World Gold Council data shows Chinese gold ETFs have pulled in more this month than in all of Q1, overtaking U.S. ETF inflows. New import quotas in China could push that demand even higher.
Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Trend Intact, Watch for Short-Term Dip
The longer-term trend stays bullish, backed by strong fundamentals and macro risk. But the short-term setup leans toward a potential pullback. A break below $3193.63 puts $3101.20 in play. If bulls defend that zone, it could offer a new entry. A clean break above $3245.85 would confirm the next upside extension.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
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