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See our full XRP forecast here.
Bitcoin Dips Amid Trade Tensions and Economic Uncertainty
XRP’s pullback mirrored bitcoin’s (BTC) modest losses as escalating US-China trade tensions continued impacting risk assets. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.62% in the week ending April 18.
However, Friday’s losses were modest. Investors awaited signs of potential US and China negotiations that could end the tit-for-tat trade war. President Trump, speaking on April 17, signaled optimism over reaching a favorable deal with China and showed reluctance to introduce further tariff hikes.
US BTC ETF End Weekly Outflow Streak on Trade Optimism
Optimism about a potential de-escalation in the US-China trade war and a softer US tariff stance on key trading partners bolstered demand for US BTC-spot ETFs. According to Farside Investors, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported net inflows of $13.7 million for the week ending April 18, snapping a two-week outflow streak. Key flow trends for the week included:
- BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded weekly net inflows of $186.5 million.
- Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) reported net inflows of $23.8 million.
- However, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $123.1 million and $99.8 million, respectively.
IBIT’s performance highlights BlackRock’s growing dominance in the crypto ETF space. Since launching on January 11, 2024, IBIT has brought $39,754 million in net inflows versus the BTC-spot ETF market’s total of $35,475 million.
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas commented on spot ETFs and market demand, stating:
“Bitcoin ETFs have eked out positive inflows past month and YTD and $IBIT is +2.4b YTD (Top 1%). Impressive and IMO helps explain why btc’s price has been relatively stable: bc it’s owners are more stable! For the past 15mo the ETFs and Saylor have been buying up all ‘dumps’ from the tourists, FTX refugees, GBTC discounters, legal unlocks, govt confiscations and Lord knows who else.”
On the supply side, Balchunas added:
“Saylor obv isn’t selling and ETF investors (as I’ve been saying bf it was cool) are much stronger hands than most think. This *should* increase stability and lower volatility and correlation long term.”
BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers
On April 18, BTC fell 0.52%, partially reversing Thursday’s 1.11% gain to close at $84,519. Despite the pullback, BTC avoided sub-$83,000 for a sixth straight session.
Near-term price trends will likely hinge on the following:
- Bearish Scenario: Tariff hikes, hawkish Fed chatter, ETF outflows, and stalled legislation could push BTC toward $75,000.
- Bullish Scenario: Lower tariffs, dovish Fed policy stance, bipartisan backing for the Bitcoin Act, and spot-ETF inflows may lift BTC toward $90,000.
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