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The USDX started this week with a decline, and while this might seem discouraging, I would like to point out three critical facts:
1. This decline took the USDX to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the 2008 – 2022 rally, which provides VERY strong support. It was only somewhat below the same retracement but based on the 2020 – 2022 rally.
2. The breakdown below the 2020-2022 61.8% Fibonacci retracement was not confirmed.
3. The USD Index just reached its declining resistance line based on the 2022 and 2023 highs.
All three are very strong reasons for the USD Index to turn back up, and the fact that we have them together is truly exceptional (especially that the weekly RSI is now extremely undervalued).
This creates a very bullish outlook for the USD Index, which poses a significant danger to anyone being long precious metals here (from the trading point of view).
Gold could remain volatile (sentiment is still red-hot, people’s searches for gold and silver ira investment near me are still booming), but given silver’s reluctance to move to new highs here, it seems that the white metal is particularly vulnerable to a sell-off.
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Thank you.
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief
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