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The minor range between $3,500.20 and $3,260.19 sets the near-term framework. The 50% retracement level at $3,380.20 is acting as resistance. A strong push above that could open the door for a retest of the record high at $3,500.20.
On the downside, the retracement zone from $3,228.38 to $3,164.23 is where many traders see value. This is the area where buyers are expected to come back in if prices weaken again. A breakdown below that zone could shift momentum further to the downside and signal that bulls are losing control.
Dollar Weakness and Trade Talks Offer Support
Gold is also getting a lift from a softer U.S. dollar, which makes the metal cheaper for foreign buyers. Meanwhile, traders are tracking U.S.-China trade updates. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said current tariffs are too high and called for progress on a deal. But China pushed back, demanding the U.S. drop all tariffs before talks can continue. That kind of back-and-forth keeps uncertainty high and gives gold added support as a hedge.
Slowing Growth Adds to Gold’s Appeal
The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for U.S. growth to 1.8%, blaming tariffs. Bessent disagreed, saying U.S. growth could exceed that if current policies stay in place. Still, investors are cautious. Treasury yields are falling, and confidence in the broader economy remains shaky. Traders are watching upcoming U.S. reports on durable goods, housing, and consumer sentiment for more clues on spending and business activity.
Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Support at Value Zone
While $3,380.20 remains a ceiling for now, the support zone between $3,228.38 and $3,164.23 marks a key value area for buyers. As long as gold holds above that range, the longer-term uptrend stays intact. With the dollar soft, trade talks uncertain, and buyers stepping in on dips, the outlook remains cautiously bullish with $3,500.20 still in play.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
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