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The index did not drop as low as expected, based on an ideal, standard, Fibonacci-based impulse pattern, because it experienced a failed 5th wave. What does that mean? It means the final fifth wave of, in this case, the decline, does not go below the end of the 3rd wave. Truncation of the 5th waves can always happen, but cannot be known beforehand.
Hence, we start with the ideal Fibonacci-based impulse pattern, and when it is invalidated, we apply, in this case, a truncated pattern. Therefore, “all we can do is anticipate, monitor, and adjust, if necessary.” Once you master this insight, the stock market suddenly becomes much easier to understand, forecast, and trade.
The Big Picture
Since our EWP count indicates an enormous Cycle-3 wave peaked in 2024, as shown in Figure 2 below, we are currently experiencing a Cycle-4 wave. Fourth waves are typically described in EW terminology as flat corrections. Additionally, EW theory includes a rule of alternation: Wave 4 differs from Wave 2. In this context, Cycle W-2 was an extended nine-year-long zigzag; therefore, Cycle W-4 is likely to be a multi-year flat.
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