[ad_1]
If the downside holds, the rebound path is clearly mapped. A break above $3.438 would put the 50-day moving average at $3.700 in play, with further resistance at $3.733. Breaching that level could open the door for a run toward $4.062, making $3.438 the key battleground for both sides in the coming sessions.
EIA Storage Report Forecasted to Beat Seasonal Norms Again
Thursday’s EIA report is widely expected to show a build of +119 Bcf for the week ending May 16, significantly above the five-year average of +87 Bcf. If confirmed, this would follow last week’s +110 Bcf injection, further weighing on sentiment. Inventory levels now sit 2.6% above their five-year average, despite being 14.6% lower year-on-year. These data continue to suggest ample supply heading into summer.
The bearish tone isn’t limited to U.S. markets. European gas storage was at 45% capacity as of May 18, compared to a five-year seasonal average of 55%, further reinforcing global supply adequacy even as the continent prepares for peak summer demand.
Will Seasonal Weather Trends Help Bulls Recover Control?
Short-term demand remains muted. Forecasts for May 21–27 point to a mild pattern across the Midwest and East, with highs in the 50s to 70s and even 40s in some areas. The West and South remain hotter, but not enough to drive significant national demand. Looking forward, some models suggest a warming trend by early June, but confidence in that outlook remains limited given the timeframe.
Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Outlook Until Support Break or Weather Shift
Unless bulls can retake the $3.438 pivot, the path of least resistance remains lower. Elevated storage builds and mild weather imply limited upside for now. A break below $3.035 would further cement short-term bearish momentum. Traders should monitor weather shifts and EIA surprises for potential catalysts, but current conditions favor sellers.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
[ad_2]
