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Key Insights:
- On Saturday, BTC saw red for the fifth time in six sessions, falling by 0.65% to end the day at $27,077.
- A lack of economic indicators left BTC in a relatively range-bound session, with no crypto events to move the dial.
- The technical indicators remain bearish, signaling a return to sub-$26,000.
On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.65%. Partially reversing a 1.57% gain from Friday, BTC ended the day at $27,077. Significantly, BTC fell for the fifth time in six sessions.
After a choppy start to the day, BTC rose to a mid-afternoon high of $27,340 before hitting reverse. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $27,533, BTC fell to a late-session low of $26,924. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,743, BTC found late support to end the day at $27,077.
Mixed Sentiment Toward the Fed Policy Outlook Weighed
It was a quiet Saturday session, with no US economic indicators to influence. The lack of economic indicators left investors to consider the effects of the US Jobs Report and the passing of the Debt Limit Suspension Bill on the Fed.
While the markets expect the Fed to hit the pause button in June, economists still anticipate further interest rate hikes should inflation remain sticky. The policy uncertainty leaves an element of uncertainty over the economic outlook.
Following the disappointing ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will need to beat forecasts on Monday to ease the fear of an economic recession. Economists forecast the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI to fall from 51.9 to 51.8 on Monday.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June interest rate hike rose from 20.4% to 25.3%. One week earlier, the chance of a 25-basis point hike stood at 64.2%.
There were no crypto events to influence the Saturday session.
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet Sunday session. Investors should continue monitoring the crypto news wires, with SEC and CFTC chatter, SEC v Ripple-related comments, and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news likely to move the dial.
In the final hour, the NASDAQ mini will likely provide direction as investors consider the week ahead.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
This morning, BTC was down 0.05% to $27,155. A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall from an opening price of $27,077 to a low of $27,055.
BTC Technical Indicators
Resistance & Support Levels
BTC needs to move through the $27,114 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $27,303 and the Saturday high of $27,340. A return to $27,300 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.
In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,530. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,946.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,887 in play. However, barring an event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $26,698 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $26,282.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bearish signals. BTC sat below the 50-day EMA ($27,160). The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, sending bearish signals.
A move through the 50-day ($27,160) and 100-day ($27,187) EMAs would support a breakout from R1 ($27,303) and the 200-day EMA ($27,379) and target R2 ($27,530). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($27,160) would leave S1 ($26,887) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.
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