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Key Insights:
- On Friday, ETH joined the broader market in the green, gaining 3.12% to end the day at $1,717.
- Staking statistics and US economic indicators supported a bullish Friday session.
- The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $1,800.
Ethereum (ETH) rallied 3.12% on Friday. Following a 0.85% gain on Thursday, ETH ended the day at $1,717. Significantly, ETH wrapped up the day at $1,700 for the first time in three sessions.
After a range-bound morning, ETH fell to an early morning low of $1,648. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,630, ETH rose to a late afternoon high of $1,728. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,689 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,714 to end the day at $1,717.
Staking Statistics Send Mixed Signals
According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows declined from 71,488 ETH on Thursday to 36,928 on Friday. The inflows remained below Friday trends and the all-important 100,000 ETH threshold.
The total value staked climbed higher, with a sharp increase in the net staking balance pushing the total higher.
The overnight withdrawal profile was bearish, with principal withdrawals above normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session were bullish, with principal ETH withdrawals projected to fall below normal levels.
On Thursday, the net ETH staking balance surged 2,760% to a surplus of 47,810 ETH, equivalent to $76.86 million. Deposits totaled 76,720 ETH versus withdrawals of 28,910 ETH.
According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 125,460 ETH, equivalent to approximately $220.12 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 6.18%, down 1.28% over 24 hours.
US Economic Indicators Delivered Up Support
According to prelim figures, the Michigan Consumer Expectations Index rose from 55.4 to 61.3, with the Sentiment Index up from 59.2 to 63.9. Significantly, the Michigan Inflation Expectations Index fell from 4.2% to 3.3%, supporting a less hawkish Fed policy outlook.
Consumer sentiment toward easing inflation and the debt ceiling crisis resolution lifted the Sentiment Index. Following the better-than-expected retail sales figures for May, the Consumer Sentiment and Expectation numbers signal a positive outlook and should ease recessionary fears.
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet day for the crypto market, with no US economic indicators to influence.
The lack of external market forces will leave staking statistics to move the dial However, SEC v Ripple, SEC v Binance, and SEC v Coinbase (COIN)-related news will move the dial.
Ethereum Price Action
This morning, ETH was up 2.17% to $1,754. A bullish start to the day saw ETH rise from an early low of $1,713 to a high of $1,769. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,747.
ETH Technical Indicators
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was bullish signals. Ethereum sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $1,774. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA closing in on the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.
A move through the 100-day EMA ($1,774) and R2 ($1,778) would give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA ($1,806). However, a fall through R1 ($1,747) and the 50-day EMA ($1,735) would bring S1 ($1,667) into view. A decline through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.
Resistance & Support Level
ETH needs to avoid a fall through R1 and the $1,698 pivot to target the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,778. A move through the morning high of $1,769 would signal an extended breakout session. However, ETH staking statistics and the crypto news wires must support a bullish session.
In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test resistance at $1,800 but fall short of the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $1,858.
A fall through R1 and the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,667 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,650 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,618.
The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,538.
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