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Key Insights:
- ETH tracked the broader market into the red on Sunday, falling 0.16% to end the day at $1,863.
- Fed Fear and staking statistics left ETH on the back foot as investors grapple with regulatory uncertainty and Fed Fear.
- The technical indicators remained bearish, signaling a return to $1,800.
Ethereum (ETH) fell by 0.16% on Sunday. Following a 0.27% loss on Saturday, ETH ended the week down 3.86% to $1,863. The bearish session left ETH short of the $1,900 handle for the third consecutive session.
Ethereum Price Action
This morning, ETH was down 0.42% to $$1,856. A bearish start to the day saw ETH fall from an early high of $1,864 to a low of $1,848.
Daily Chart
The Daily Chart showed ETH/USD remained below the lower level of the $1,930 – $1,900 resistance band for the third consecutive session on Sunday.
However, ETH/USD currently sits above the 50-day ($1,851) and 200-day ($1,757) EMAs, signaling bullish momentum over the near and long term.
Notably, the 50-day EMA widened from the 200-day EMA and reflected bullish momentum.
However, looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 48.85 reading signaled a moderately bearish outlook in contrast with the EMAs. An RSI move through 50 would support a run at the lower level of the $1,930 – $1,900 resistance band.
4-Hourly Chart
Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the ETH/USD faces strong resistance at the $1,900 psychological level. ETH/USD sits below the 50-day ($1,885) and 200-day EMA ($1,861) EMAs, sending bearish near-term and longer-term signals.
Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, signaling a likely return to sub-$1,800 to bring the $1,665 – $1,625 support band into view.
ETH/USD should move through the EMAs to target the lower level of the $1,900 – $1,930 resistance band to support a breakout from $1,930.
The 14-4H RSI reading of 38.97 indicates a bearish stance, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the bearish RSI aligns with the EMAs and supports a return to sub-$1,800.
Slide in Staking Inflows Sends Bearish Signals
According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows decreased from 23,968 ETH on Saturday to 9,152 on Sunday. Significantly, staking inflows fell to the lowest since April 10, with sub-10,000 inflows a bearish signal.
The overnight withdrawal profile was relatively bearish, with principal withdrawals rising to above-normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session are also bearish. Projections show ETH withdrawal levels will sit at above-normal levels throughout the morning.
On Sunday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a 26,210 ETH surplus, down 36.19% over 24 hours. Deposits totaled 31,900 versus withdrawals of 5,690 ETH.
According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 72,690 ETH, equivalent to approximately $134.77 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.61%, unchanged over 24 hours. However, the downward trend in the staking APR and the spike in pending withdrawals are ETH price negative.
Fed Fear Added to the Bearish Mood
It was a quiet Sunday session, with no crypto events to move the dial. The lack of market forces and Fed Fear left ETH on the back foot.
While the Fed looks set to hike rates by 25 basis points this month, there is uncertainty toward the September policy decision. Hawkish Fed forward guidance signals one further rate hike before hitting the brakes. However, the US Jobs Report supported a July move but left September in the hands of the US CPI Report on Wednesday.
Staking statistics remained a headwind, with regulatory scrutiny and falling staking APRs being a bad combination.
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet Monday, with no US economic indicators to draw interest. However, Fed chatter will draw interest in the afternoon session, with hawkish commentary likely to influence.
FOMC members Barr, Bostic, Daly, and Mester are on the calendar to speak today.
Beyond the US economic calendar and the staking statistics, investors should track ETF chatter, with Binance and SEC v Ripple-related news likely to also be focal points.
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