Will the Precious Metal Reverse Its Downtrend?

Gold Forecast Video for 14.08.23 by Bruce Powers

Gold dipped briefly to a new trend low of 1,911 today before reversing higher and bouncing. Nevertheless, it looks like to close to the opening price which is near the lower end of the day’s price range. The day may take the form of a bearish inverted hammer candlestick pattern. There remains a series of lower daily highs and lower daily lows in gold that define the near-term downtrend. Therefore, a decisive drop below today’s low is bearish and may lead to a deeper retracement.

Gold is Sitting at Support Zone

Nevertheless, gold is sitting at a key price support zone now that could lead to a bullish reversal. This price zone starts at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1,913 and goes down to the area of the 200-Day EMA at 1,908. Also within that range is the completion of a falling ABCD pattern with the CD leg extended by 161.8% of the AB leg decline. Moreover, there is significant monthly support from July around 1,903. If the decline continues and there is a daily close below the monthly low, then the price structure will need to be reevaluated. This will also depend on the how quickly, if at all, a recovery process begins.

Closing Price May Provide a Clue

Today’s price action is contained within a relatively narrower range with a high of 1,921 and a low of 1,911. If these parameters remain at the end of the day a decisive rally above today’s high will provide the first sign of strength on a daily chart. Subsequently, gold heads up into potential resistance at the intersection of an uptrend and downtrend around 1,924. If the daily breakout is valid this first zone should be breached easily to the upside.

Increased Confidence Above 1,932

Of greater consequence is the next higher resistance zone that goes from around 1,929 to 1,932. The first price level consists of the underside of the previous 61.8% Fibonacci retracement along with the 10-Day EMA and downtrend line. You can see how the 10-Day EMA has converged with the downtrend line to identify a similar price area. At the upper end of the range, 1,932 identifies the three-day high.

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