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Gold Forecast Video for 11.09.23 by Bruce Powers
Gold triggered a daily bullish reversal earlier in the session as it rallied above the highs of the past two days. However, once a high of 1,930 was hit it sold off sharply, falling back below the opening price before finding support at the day’s low of 1,917. It currently shows a bearish inverted hammer candlestick pattern for the day. If it closes in a similar weak position, it could be followed by a deeper retracement.
Failed Bullish Breakout
The advance earlier in the session tested resistance around the internal downtrend line and price was clearly rejected to the downside. If gold closes weak as it looks now, then earlier breakouts above yesterday’s high of 1,924 and Wednesday’s high of 1,929 have failed. The buyers were in charge earlier but by the end of the day it looks like the sellers are in charge once again. That could start to change if gold is able to close the day above yesterday’s high.
A Drop Below Today’s Low of 1,917 Signals Weakening and Possible Further Downside
Heading into next week a drop below today’s low of 1,917 triggers a breakdown of the bearish hammer and would be a sign of weakening. If that occurs the chance for a continuation lower for the retracement increases. However, support might still be seen around Thursday’s low of 1,916 or Wednesday’s low 1,915, which is also the retracement low. Nevertheless, a decline below 1,915 points to a further decline and a likely test of the 200-Day EMA as support. The 200-Day line at 1,910 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1,911 together create the next lower target zone.
If Consolidation Follows, Then Today’s High Marks Near Term Resistance
If gold consolidates above the 1,915 low rather than falling further to a new retracement low, then today’s high of 1,930 is near-term resistance. A decisive move today’s high would be the first sign of strength and a daily close above it will confirm. If this occurs gold would also be back above the 34-Day EMA, now at 1,926 and the downtrend line.
Correction Getting Closer to the End
If gold’s correction continues, it certainly looks like it is getting closer to the end. It has been trading between a downtrend and uptrend line and the lines cross in two weeks. This means that within five to six days or so there is a strong chance that gold will cross one of those lines.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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