Navigating Economic Storms and Interest Rate Winds

Friday Overview

It was another risk-off session for the Asian equity markets on Friday. The Nikkei led the way into negative territory, while the ASX 200 saw a modest loss. Trading on the Hang Seng Index was halted due to a Black Rainstorm warning.

US labor market economic indicators set the tone. Tighter labor market conditions supported a more hawkish outlook on the Fed interest rate trajectory.

The US equity markets reflected the shift in sentiment toward the Fed interest rate outlook. On Thursday, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite Index declined by 0.32% and 0.09%, respectively, while the Dow gained 0.17%.

Economic indicators from Japan added to the negative mood. Downward revisions to preliminary GDP numbers supported an ultra-loose Bank of Japan monetary policy stance but also highlighted lingering economic uncertainty.

The effects of the trade data from China on market sentiment resonated, with Beijing failing to offer further stimulus to support the economy.

Chinese Economy in Focus: Vehicle Sales and New Loans in the Spotlight

August vehicle sales and new Yuan loan figures from China will influence market risk sentiment and the Hang Seng Index. While the reports are out after the Australian and Japanese markets close, apprehension over another set of weak figures could weigh on buyer appetite.

Economists forecast vehicle sales to increase by 2.0% year-over-year (July: -1.4%) and for new Yuan loans to surge from CNY345.9 billion to CNY1,200 billion. Forecasts support the appetite for riskier assets.

While the numbers will influence market risk appetite, investors must monitor the news for stimulus chatter from Beijing.

US Consumer Inflation Expectations a Factor

Gains from Friday across the US equity markets will likely provide early support. However, investor jitters over further Fed rate hikes and a higher-for-longer interest rate trajectory remain headwinds.

Later today, the Consumer Inflation Expectations survey will be a prelude to the US CPI Report on Wednesday. Economists forecast consumer inflation expectations to soften from 3.5% to 3.4%, while anticipating the US annual inflation rate to accelerate from 3.2% to 3.6% in August. There are reasons for investors to remain cautious early in the week, considering Fed bets and China’s economic woes.

On Friday, the S&P 500 and Dow saw gains of 0.14% and 0.22%, respectively, while the NASDAQ Composite Index ended the session flat.

ASX 200

The ASX 200 declined by 0.20% on Friday. Falling iron ore futures continued to weigh on mining stocks.

Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) slid by 2.37%. BHP Group Ltd (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RIO) ended the day with losses of 1.19% and 1.71%, respectively. Newcrest Mining (NCM) gained 0.59%.

The big four banks had a mixed session. ANZ Group (ANZ) and Westpac Banking Corp (WBC) saw gains of 0.24%. The National Australia Bank (NAB) rose by 0.21%. However, The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) bucked the trend, falling by 0.09%.

Oil stocks also had a mixed session. Woodside Energy Group (WDS) gained 0.11%, while Santos Ltd (STO) fell by 0.13%.

Hang Seng Index

The Hong Kong markets were closed on Friday. However, the CSI300 ended the Friday session down 0.49%.

Nikkei 225

(For reference purposes only)

The Nikkei 225 slid by 1.18% despite a stronger USD to JPY exchange rate. Downward revisions to second-quarter GDP numbers weighed on investor appetite. The economy expanded by 1.2% in the second quarter versus a preliminary 1.5%.

Household spending figures from Thursday and the downward revision to GDP numbers coincide with increased warnings of government intervention to support the Yen. The threat of intervention remains a headwind amidst the current macroeconomic backdrop in China.

Bank stocks ended the day in negative territory. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group fell by 0.89% and 1.30%, respectively.

Looking at the main components, it was a mixed session.

Tokyo Electron Limited (8035) and Sony Corp. (6758) saw losses of 3.83% and 2.02%, respectively. Fast Retailing Co (9983) and KDDI Corp. (9433) fell by 1.26% and 0.61%, respectively. SoftBank Group Corp. (9984) bucked the trend, gaining 0.22%.

For upcoming economic events, check out our economic calendar.