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Economic Indicators Shape a Tumultuous Week

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Overnight US economic indicators from Thursday failed to spook investors despite better-than-expected jobless claims. Initial jobless claims increased from 202k to 204k, a level still reflective of tight labor market conditions. Finalized GDP numbers for the second quarter confirmed growth of 2.1%, supporting a pickup in US Treasury yields.

The US equity markets responded to the economic indicators. On Thursday, the S&P 500 and the Dow ended the day up 0.59% and 0.35%, respectively. The NASDAQ Composite Index gained 0.83%.

While the Hang Seng Index enjoyed a breakout session, investors were cautious. Private sector PMIs from China and the US Jobs Report will influence market risk sentiment.

The Monday Session: Private Sector PMIs and Tankan Survey Figures in Focus

On Friday, softer US inflation numbers eased pressure on the Fed to push rates higher. A below-expectation 0.4% increase in personal spending supported a positive end to the quarter for the NASDAQ Composite Index.

The NASDAQ Composite Index gained 0.14%, while the Dow and S&P 500 fell by 0.47% and 0.27%. While the US inflation figures were market-friendly, the lingering threat of a US government shutdown contributed to the mixed Friday session.

This morning, trading volumes will be lighter, with the Hong Kong and Chinese markets closed for the National Day Holidays.

However, private sector PMI numbers from China and the Tankan Survey figures from Japan will influence investor sentiment.

From China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.0 to 50.6 in September, with the Services PMI down from 51.8 to 50.2. Economists forecast PMIs of 51.2 and 52.6, respectively.

The weaker-than-expected PMIs will likely impact riskier assets. However, Tankan survey-based numbers from Japan will provide the Nikkei with direction. Economists forecast the Tankan Large Manufacturers Index to increase from 5 to 6 in the third quarter.

While the numbers will influence investor sentiment, relief over the news of the US government averting a shutdown should cushion any downside.

In the Futures Markets, the ASX 200 and the Nikkei 225 were down 38 and 60 points, respectively.

ASX 200

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