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Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis
The Aussie dollar continues to consolidate overall, testing the same support region. This is near the 0.6275 level, an area that has been very important over the last couple of weeks. At this point, if we do rally from here, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we start shorting the market again, and I would not hesitate to do so on signs of exhaustion. This will be especially interesting near the 0.64 level, as it has offered resistance previously, and it is also where the 50-Day EMA is currently racing toward.
If we were to break above the 50-Day EMA, then it’s likely that the market could we would see the market go look into the 0.65 level, possibly even the 0.66 level. It’s at the 0.66 level that we have the 200-Day EMA, which of course is a long-term barrier. The 200-Day EMA is an indicator that will attract a lot of attention, so if we were to break above there then it is likely that we could send the market much higher. That being said, I don’t see that happening anytime soon as there are so many geopolitical risks out there.
The Australian dollar rallying is just going to invite more selling pressure at the first signs of weakness, which makes sense considering that the Australian dollar is so highly levered to global growth and of course commodities. I think at this point you get a situation where you are just looking for an opportunity to pick up “cheap US dollars” every time they are offered. I don’t know how long it will take to break through the support underneath, but it certainly looks as if we are trying to do so.
Once we do, that opens up the possibility of a move down to the 0.62 level. After that, then you have the possibility of a move down to the 0.60 level. Ultimately, I just don’t want to buy this pair until something changes quite drastically, so at this point it’s just a matter of being patient enough to fade rallies when they give you an opportunity to get short yet again.
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