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Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis
The euro has initially fallen during the trading session on Monday, only to turn around and show signs of life again. Alternatively, it looks like we are testing the top of the overall consolidation area that we have been in, so it is worth noting that the 1.0650 level could be rather crucial to pay attention to. If we were to break above that level, then the market could continue to recover, perhaps attempting to get to the 50-Day EMA above.
If we were to break above the 50-Day EMA, then it allows the market to go looking toward the 200-Day EMA. That being said, this is an area that has been rather resilient lately as far as selling pressure is concerned, so it does make a lot of sense that we would struggle. On the downside, the market will continue to look at the 1.05 level as an area that should be rather supported, not only due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course an area where we have seen a bit of support previously anyway.
When you look at this chart, you can see just how noisy things are, but I do think that given enough time we will have to make a longer-term decision. There are a whole slew of inflation numbers coming out this week, and of course we have the ECB interest rate decision on Wednesday. In other words, I would expect a lot of volatility in this market over the next couple of sessions.
Keep in mind that the European Union is heading into a recession, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see the euro struggle over the longer term, but in the meantime there might be a little bit of short covering as we head toward that central bank decision, as traders might be worried about the market reaction. Ultimately, we have been consolidating for a while now, so it’s not a huge surprise to see what we are doing currently, and it’s likely that we will continue more of the same over the next couple of days until we get to that central bank decision.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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