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US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis
The US dollar has shown itself to be somewhat resilient as every time we fall against the Japanese yen we turn around and press up against the ¥150 level. The ¥150 level is an area where we would see a lot of psychology come into play, and of course is an area that has already shown itself to be very resilient as far as resistance is concerned.
On pullbacks at this point, it’s obvious to me that there should be plenty of buyers willing to come back into the picture, due to the fact that the interest rate differential between the 2 currencies continues to favor holding onto it. However, we have recently seen the Bank of Japan try to defend the ¥150 level, but at the same time we have seen the Bank of Japan jump into the bond market and start driving yields back down. In other words, they are directly participating in quantitative easing, which of course makes the currency very unattractive.
On a pullback from this point, the 50-Day EMA is racing toward the ¥147.80 level, which is an area where we have seen a lot of support previously. That for me is the “bottom of the market” at the moment, and therefore I don’t necessarily see this pair breaking down below there, even if the Japanese choose to intervene in the markets again. On the other hand, if we break above the ¥150 level on a daily close, then I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we can look into the ¥152 level above, which is where the market had pulled back from during its previous high.
This will be a volatile market, once we finally get some type of certainty and momentum. Once that happens, and I certainly think it’s to the upside, we could see a rather explosive move. We have GDP coming out this week from the United States, so they can have a major influence on how the US dollar behaves in general. The Japanese yen is a currency that I do not like and I do not hold at the moment, regardless of what you are measuring it against.
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