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Key Insights
- Gold’s price sees a lift from both the dip in US bond yields and intensifying Gaza-Israel tensions.
- All eyes are on US Q3 GDP and September’s core PCE price index, vital for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision
- CME Group Fedwatch tool suggests a high probability of rates stabilizing between 5.25%-5.50%.
- US business activity sees an upswing in October as Europe faces a slowdown, lending strength to the US Dollar.
- Gold’s bullish trend remains intact above the $1966 mark, with imminent resistance levels up to $2020.
Quick Fundamental Outlook
Gold’s price hovers around $1,977, buoyed by a dip in long-term US bond yields. The geopolitical tension in Gaza, with a potential Israeli ground assault, further supports the precious metal’s appeal. On the economic front, eyes are on the upcoming US Q3 GDP and September’s core PCE price index data, both crucial influencers for the Federal Reserve’s impending interest rate decision on November 1.
Forecasts indicate a Q3 US economic growth of 4.2% annually, a significant jump from the previous quarter’s 2.1%. Moreover, September’s core PCE price index is projected to have risen by 0.3%, with yearly inflation anticipated at 3.7%. These figures, if positive, may heighten expectations of the Fed’s policy tightening.
However, the CME Group Fedwatch tool indicates a high likelihood of rates remaining stable at 5.25%-5.50%. Furthermore, the US Dollar has seen a resurgence, especially after S&P Global highlighted an uptick in US business activity for October, contrasting a slowdown in Europe.
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $1976, marking a slight increase of 0.06% over the last 24 hours. Within a 4-hour chart, key levels to watch include a pivot point at $1966, immediate resistance levels at $1984, $1998, and $2020, and support at $1947, further bolstered by $1932 and $1911.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 59, suggesting a bullish sentiment as it’s above the 50 threshold. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) value is -2.3, with a signal value of 6.1. This indicates the MACD line has recently crossed below its signal, hinting at potential downward momentum.
However, the price is comfortably above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) of $1950, which traditionally implies a short-term bullish trend. The 4-hour chart showcases an upward channel, and the positioning of the 50 EMA suggests potential buying pressure.
In conclusion, the overall trend for Gold remains bullish, especially if prices hold above the $1966 mark. In the short term, investors can anticipate Gold to challenge the resistance levels mentioned, with a particular eye on $1984.
Silver Prices Forecast
Silver (XAG/USD), a precious metal historically shadowed by its golden counterpart, currently trades at $22.80, reflecting a modest uptick of 0.20% within the last 24 hours.
On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point stands at $22.74, with resistance levels at $22.23, $23.69, and $24.11. Immediate support is found at $22.39, and further cushions are at $21.82 and $21.30.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44, indicating a bearish sentiment as it’s below the midpoint of 50. The price hovers marginally below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) of $22.82, but the upward channel on the 4-hour timeframe indicates a breakout at the $22.80 level.
In conclusion, Silver’s trajectory seems bearish below the $22.80 mark. In the short term, Silver could retest the $22.23 resistance if the bearish sentiment continues.
Copper Prices Forecast
Copper, a vital industrial metal, recorded a modest ascent today, trading at $3.62, marking a 0.13% increase over the past 24 hours. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is set at $3.61. Resistances loom at $3.67, $3.70, and $3.74, while supports are marked at $3.56, $3.52, and $3.48.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is clocked at 53, slightly tilted towards a bullish sentiment. The MACD stands at 0.003, with its signal line at 0.011, suggesting a potential for upward momentum.
Intriguingly, the price is on par with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA), positioned at $3.61, indicating equilibrium in short-term trends. A notable chart pattern reveals a downward trendline at $3.67.
Despite the bearish engulfing candle suggesting a selling pressure, the 50 EMA and pivot point could provide a cushion around $3.61. In conclusion, Copper’s outlook appears bullish as long as it remains above $3.61. In the short run, the metal might challenge the $3.67 resistance.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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