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Near-Term Outlook
The DAX’s trajectory hinges on the US Jobs Report and central bank guidance.
- A weaker-than-expected US jobs report and dovish Fed rhetoric could boost risk appetite, potentially driving the DAX above 22,000.
- Tighter US labor market conditions and hawkish Fed guidance may pull the DAX toward 21,500.
Beyond the data, investors should track US-China and EU trade developments, which will be crucial for risk sentiment. A de-escalation in trade tensions could fuel demand for risk assets, while an escalation may drag the DAX lower.
As of Friday morning, US futures pointed to a testy session, with the Nasdaq 100 mini dropping 18 points.
DAX Technical Indicators
Daily Chart
After Thursday’s 1.47% rally, the DAX remains well above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), affirming bullish price signals.
If the DAX breaks above Thursday’s record high of 21,921, the Index could move through the 22,000 threshold. A breakout from 22,000 could enable the bulls to target 22,350.
Conversely, a DAX drop below 21,750 may bring 21,500 into play. A break below 21,500 could signal a fall toward 21,000.
With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 74.37, the DAX remains in overbought territory (RSI higher than 70). Selling pressure may intensify if the DAX approaches the resistance level of 21,921.
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