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Near-Term Outlook
The DAX’s near-term trajectory hinges on upcoming US inflation and labor market data.
- Softer producer prices and higher jobless claims could boost demand for rate-sensitive stocks, potentially pushing the DAX above 22,500.
- Higher-than-expected producer prices and a sharp drop in claims may drag the DAX toward 22,350.
Beyond US data, geopolitical risks and trade developments require consideration. An escalation in US-EU trade tensions could pressure the DAX, while a de-escalation may drive the Index to record highs. However, progress toward an end to the Ukraine war could counter tariff concerns in the near term.
As of Thursday morning, US futures pointed to a positive session, with the Nasdaq 100 mini rising 102 points.
DAX Technical Indicators
Daily Chart
After Thursday morning’s breakout, the DAX sits well above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), affirming bullish price signals.
If the DAX surpasses Thursday’s record high of 22,430, it could move toward 22,500. A breakout from 22,500 may allow the bulls to target 22,750 next.
Conversely, a DAX drop to 22,350 could bring 22,150 into play.
With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 78.73, the DAX remains in overbought territory (RSI higher than 70). Selling pressure may intensify if the DAX approaches the key resistance level of 22,430.
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