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US Markets Mixed Amid Tariff Concerns
US equity markets had a mixed session on Friday, February 14, as investors considered US data and ongoing tariff threats. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.41%, while the Dow and S&P 500 fell 0.37% and 0.01%, respectively.
Airbnb (ABNB) rallied 14.45% on upbeat earnings, while Apple Inc. (AAPL), and Nvidia (NVDA) advanced by 1.27% and 2.63%, contributing to the Nasdaq’s gains.
In the bond markets, 10-year US Treasury yields dropped to a session low of 4.447%, reflecting expectations for a more accommodative Fed policy.
Key Focus: Fed Speakers and Trade Developments
On Monday, February 17, traders should monitor FOMC members’ commentary. Reactions to recent inflation, retail sales data, and insights into the Fed’s rate path could influence risk sentiment. The Fed’s Patrick Harker and Michelle Bowman are on the calendar to speak late in the European session.
Beyond the economic calendar, trade developments also require consideration, with potential US tariff threats remaining a key market driver.
Near-Term Outlook
The DAX’s performance hinges on Eurozone trade data and central bank forward guidance.
- Weaker trade data and dovish central bank forward guidance could drive the DAX toward 23,000.
- Upbeat trade data and a hawkish Fed policy stance may weigh on rate-sensitive German stocks, potentially pulling the Index toward 22,000.
US trade policy and geopolitical tensions remain major risks. Escalating US-EU trade disputes could weigh on export-driven German stocks, while signs of constructive trade talks may drive the DAX to fresh highs.
As of Monday morning, futures indicated a positive start to the week. DAX futures gained 38 points, while the Nasdaq 100 mini climbed 75 points.
DAX Technical Indicators
Daily Chart
Despite Friday’s retreat, the DAX remains well above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The EMAs confirm bullish price trends.
A return to the February 13 record high of 22,625 could enable the bulls to target 22,750 next. A breakout from 22,750 may signal a move toward 23,000.
Conversely, if the DAX breaks below 22,500, the bears may target the 22,350 level next.
With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 76.79, the DAX remains in overbought territory (above 70 RSI). Selling pressure may increase at the record high of 22,625.
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